Get ready for Marine

martyn94 · Post by **martyn94** » Sun 29 Jan 2017 14:37

If I had a vote here, I would have been getting my head round the idea of voting for FranÃ§ois Fillon in the second round of the presidential election, even if through gritted teeth. Now his candidature seems to be blowing up, it's not easy to see why she should lose.

But if she does win, maybe the sterling-franc exchange rate might settle at a rate more favourable to me. Strange days.

Gus Morris · Post by **Gus Morris** » Sun 29 Jan 2017 17:23

An interesting topic for debate. But not, methinks, on here!

Gus

martyn94 · Post by **martyn94** » Sun 29 Jan 2017 18:54

Gus Morris wrote:An interesting topic for debate. But not, methinks, on here!

Gus

Before you get any higher on your horse (methinks) you could look at the title of the sub-forum. That's why I chose it.

SteveB · Post by **SteveB** » Fri 03 Feb 2017 05:55

According to the latest "sondages" Macron is now more or less level with Fillon, and should easily beat Le Pen in the second round (https://fr.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_d ... se_de_2017). Admittedly opinion polls have not had a good track record recently, although for the second round the margin is high - around 65%-35% - and Macron being something of an outsider may work to his advantage. But given the unpredictability of recent elections worldwide, I'm not holding my breath...

martyn94 · Post by **martyn94** » Fri 03 Feb 2017 17:19

SteveB wrote:According to the latest "sondages" Macron is now more or less level with Fillon, and should easily beat Le Pen in the second round (https://fr.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_d ... se_de_2017). Admittedly opinion polls have not had a good track record recently, although for the second round the margin is high - around 65%-35% - and Macron being something of an outsider may work to his advantage. But given the unpredictability of recent elections worldwide, I'm not holding my breath...

Never say that there isn't something for everyone, but I can't say that I'd vote for any of them with a song on my lips. Though it's a bit premature to speculate without knowing what else the Canard might come up with in the next few weeks: maybe JuppÃ© will have to be dragged back into the frame with a suitable show of reluctance. I ought to find Macron attractive, but he gives me the creeps.

Santiago · Post by **Santiago** » Tue 21 Feb 2017 19:52

Macron presents an interesting "breath of fresh air" alternative to big-party politicians but unlike Farage and Trump, he's not on the extreme right. He's popular with young French people.

People accuse him of having no concrete plan but I actually think that's better. Which party keeps to their plans anyway? Better to have a solid philosophy and vision and then plan things as they become important. That's certainly how many successful businesses operate.

I like his idea of having a cross-party cabinet.

martyn94 · Post by **martyn94** » Wed 22 Feb 2017 13:04

Santiago wrote:Macron presents an interesting "breath of fresh air" alternative to big-party politicians but unlike Farage and Trump, he's not on the extreme right. He's popular with young French people.

People accuse him of having no concrete plan but I actually think that's better. Which party keeps to their plans anyway? Better to have a solid philosophy and vision and then plan things as they become important. That's certainly how many successful businesses operate.

I like his idea of having a cross-party cabinet.

I agree in principle, but he could not have a more elite CV for someone reckoning to be a breath of fresh air. Jesuit lycÃ©e in Lille; "prÃ©pa" at the lycÃ©e Henri 4 in Paris; Science Po; then ENA. A short period as an inspecteur des finances (you can't hang about if you don't leave school until you're 27). Then made a few millionâ‚¬ wheeling and dealing at Rothschild's. Then a few jobs in ministerial cabinets, then anointed a junior minister, where he produced the "loi Macron": even on a kindly view, the dampest of damp squibs. Admittedly not mostly his fault, and it shows his heart was in more-or-less the right place. But how exactly does a president with no party get things through once the CGT start burning tyres? De Gaulle did it, of course, but he's no De Gaulle, and now is not 1958. This seems to me close to magical thinking, though I understand the appeal.

SteveB · Post by **SteveB** » Wed 22 Feb 2017 15:07

Maybe in the current political climate the best we can hope for in a leader is that they're not totally outrageous. For me a centrist such as Macron is preferable to a socially conservative pro-Russian Thatcher admirer like Fillon - though either would be preferable to Marine ale Pen.

Santiago · Post by **Santiago** » Sat 04 Mar 2017 10:32

I never said Macron was not a member of the elite, but I would not want a President who had not done very well at school, failed to get a decent job and generally been a bit mediocre in their other careers.

The whole idea of "the elite" being a bad thing is a stupid concept which fits perfectly with fake-news, post-truth, anti-expert popularism that is wrecking our societies.

martyn94 · Post by **martyn94** » Sat 04 Mar 2017 16:37

Santiago wrote:I never said Macron was not a member of the elite, but I would not want a President who had not done very well at school, failed to get a decent job and generally been a bit mediocre in their other careers.

The whole idea of "the elite" being a bad thing is a stupid concept which fits perfectly with fake-news, post-truth, anti-expert popularism that is wrecking our societies.

I don't think I was taking a crack at Macron, and certainly not at you. My problem, really, was that excellence and expertise in French political life has been concentrated, for many decades, down a very narrow corridor, and has not latterly got us very far. And people who go anywhere beyond that, even in a good way, are met with garlic and crucifixes. Maybe Macron can emancipate himself from that sort of group-think, and maybe - a much bigger maybe - he can mobilise a parliamentary majority (from where, exactly?) to get some serious stuff through. But the smart money says that it will all go tits up once the CGT burn a few truck tyres (or a few spotty lycÃ©ens block their lycÃ©es, God help us).

As it is, he will be immortalized by the "cars Macron" - a few long-distance buses. It's really only in France that this would have seemed remotely interesting, or anyone would have thought that they needed permission.

martyn94 · Post by **martyn94** » Sat 04 Mar 2017 16:58

SteveB wrote:Maybe in the current political climate the best we can hope for in a leader is that they're not totally outrageous. For me a centrist such as Macron is preferable to a socially conservative pro-Russian Thatcher admirer like Fillon - though either would be preferable to Marine ale Pen.

I think I've implied that I agree, though you could have added "and a crook" after "Thatcher admirer". But what a choice.

Sus · Post by **Sus** » Sun 05 Mar 2017 17:47

Santiago wrote:I never said Macron was not a member of the elite, but I would not want a President who had not done very well at school, failed to get a decent job and generally been a bit mediocre in their other careers.

The whole idea of "the elite" being a bad thing is a stupid concept which fits perfectly with fake-news, post-truth, anti-expert popularism that is wrecking our societies.

Couldn't agree with you more, not to mention alternative facts.

martyn94 · Post by **martyn94** » Mon 06 Mar 2017 10:49

Santiago wrote:I never said Macron was not a member of the elite, but I would not want a President who had not done very well at school, failed to get a decent job and generally been a bit mediocre in their other careers.

The whole idea of "the elite" being a bad thing is a stupid concept which fits perfectly with fake-news, post-truth, anti-expert popularism that is wrecking our societies.

Elites are always with us, and they will be top dogs whether we like it or not. The question is how they get there.

The problem is that the elite here arise from a rigid process of "social reproduction" (copyright Karl Marx, but one of his better ideas): privileged parents have privileged children who go more-or-less on a conveyor belt through a (long) succession of elite institutions, and then get elite jobs (greased by their "rÃ©seaux" among equally-privileged people who have gone the same route).

It's not that they are not clever or hard-working, but that they inevitably have a narrow perspective and a limited mind-set, and that the system just ignores anyone, potentially just as capable, and potentially more empathetic, who doesn't start with the ticket of entry.

Fillon, oddly enough, isn't an Ã©narque (just a highly-qualified lawyer) but his CV fits the bill in other respects. If he had come through a lycÃ©e in Seine-St-Denis, he might have realised that he was paying his wife about 5 times what his own parents would have earned on the smic for actually working, and maybe thought it looked a bit iffy.

GrahamC · Post by **GrahamC** » Tue 07 Mar 2017 22:19

Bring on Marine, so we can finally put an end to the EU monster

Webdoc · Post by **Webdoc** » Tue 07 Mar 2017 23:13

GrahamC wrote:Bring on Marine, so we can finally put an end to the EU monster

.......... and replace it with another monster perhaps? I'm no fan of the EU but I fear that the pendulum may swing from one unpalatable extreme to the other.

Be careful what you wish for.

Sus · Post by **Sus** » Wed 08 Mar 2017 06:47

Webdoc wrote:
GrahamC wrote:Bring on Marine, so we can finally put an end to the EU monster
.......... and replace it with another monster perhaps? I'm no fan of the EU but I fear that the pendulum may swing from one unpalatable extreme to the other.

Be careful what you wish for.

I agree, I also have my reservations about the EU but definitely the lesser of two evils compared with Putin, Erdogan, Trump or Boris as Foreign secretary...

martyn94 · Post by **martyn94** » Wed 08 Mar 2017 13:52

GrahamC wrote: the EU monster

AKA "Puff the Magic Dragon"

GrahamC · Post by **GrahamC** » Wed 08 Mar 2017 14:39

Seriously? You're equating Boris Johnson with Vladimir Putin?

martyn94 · Post by **martyn94** » Wed 08 Mar 2017 17:25

GrahamC wrote:Seriously? You're equating Boris Johnson with Vladimir Putin?

I'm sure it's racist and all sorts of other bad things, but we tend to apply higher standards to our old-Etonians than to other people's ex-KGB men. Of the two, it's arguable that Boris has less excuse, but nobody is likely to care enough that it matters.

GrahamC · Post by **GrahamC** » Thu 09 Mar 2017 00:25

This is serious nutcase territory. Boris is an intelligent, educated articulate democrat. You may not like him, you may sniff at the clowning around he did before he was awarded high office but you cannot in all seriousness equate him with Putin.

Putin is an agressive tyrant, gangster who actively assasinates his political opponents.

You've completely lost the plot Martyn.

martyn94 · Post by **martyn94** » Thu 09 Mar 2017 09:35

GrahamC wrote:but you cannot in all seriousness equate him with Putin.

I took some care not to do so. He is nevertheless our Boris, and their Putin.

Sus · Post by **Sus** » Thu 16 Mar 2017 21:47

GrahamC wrote:This is serious nutcase territory. Boris is an intelligent, educated articulate democrat. You may not like him, you may sniff at the clowning around he did before he was awarded high office but you cannot in all seriousness equate him with Putin.

Putin is an agressive tyrant, gangster who actively assasinates his political opponents.

You've completely lost the plot Martyn.

Maybe some yoga to calm down?! You have a point that there is a sliding scale here, nevertheless, there is a certain trend for basic/no understanding of math, inflated ego, emotional/thin skin and of course alternative facts. That being said, you are right that Putin is quite a different magnitude, so are Erdogan and Trump.

martyn94 · Post by **martyn94** » Fri 17 Mar 2017 11:57

Sus wrote:
GrahamC wrote:This is serious nutcase territory. Boris is an intelligent, educated articulate democrat. You may not like him, you may sniff at the clowning around he did before he was awarded high office but you cannot in all seriousness equate him with Putin.

Putin is an agressive tyrant, gangster who actively assasinates his political opponents.

You've completely lost the plot Martyn.
That being said, you are right that Putin is quite a different magnitude, so are Erdogan and Trump.

I thought I had made it clear that I entirely agree. For better or worse, we do not expect Russia, or Turkey, or (regrettably) the US to have mature, thoughtful, or liberal politicians: but happily their leaders do not run my native country. My objection to Boris is exactly what GrahamC says in his defence: he is intelligent, educated, articulate, and I guess a democrat of sorts. But still a clown, and our clown.

martyn94 · Post by **martyn94** » Fri 17 Mar 2017 14:06

martyn94 wrote:But still a clown, and our clown.

By way of afterthought, I don't think for a moment that he's just some idiot who cannot keep his mouth shut or his flies zipped up. He's evidently pretty relaxed about both, but not at all just by accident. He had an acute judgment about what would go down with provincial Conservative associations ("not a dry seat in the house", as the saying goes). Until suddenly he didn't have enough support to see off the vicar's daughter: but for how long, once she blows it?

Santiago · Post by **Santiago** » Fri 17 Mar 2017 18:37

I do find it rather laughable that anyone who is a member of this forum would be keen on both France and Britain leaving the EU. It displays a unique lack of understanding and blinkered view of what the EU does.

Phip3 · Post by **Phip3** » Fri 17 Mar 2017 20:09

The best arguement I heard for the EU was by the speech made by the first head of the European Central Bank , Rolf Dussenburg (I'm not sure about the spelling here), when he stepped down. He has since died. Broadly speaking : the long history of European wars and the need to create a way of working and living together so that we never relive this history . I'll see if I can find a link to this + check spelling.

I know more than one Brit living here who voted to leave . Very odd logic .

Phip3 · Post by **Phip3** » Fri 17 Mar 2017 21:03

It was Wim not Rolf

martyn94 · Post by **martyn94** » Fri 17 Mar 2017 23:13

Phip3 wrote:The best arguement I heard for the EU was by the speech made by the first head of the European Central Bank , Rolf Dussenburg (I'm not sure about the spelling here), when he stepped down. He has since died. Broadly speaking : the long history of European wars and the need to create a way of working and living together so that we never relive this history . I'll see if I can find a link to this + check spelling.

I know more than one Brit living here who voted to leave . Very odd logic .

But I'm not sure that "never again" has that sort of resonance in the U.K. My old dad went through the last one and came away with a strong aversion to camping, or even picnics, but no particular dread of European war, so long as we won.

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