Smoking out the Brexout Mistruths and lack of Substance

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Gus Morris
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Post by Gus Morris »

As I have travelled across Europe I'v seen place names and sights which, to me at least, are a powerful argument for creating a United Europe. Azincourt, Waterloo, the Somme, Normandy. Reminders of the millons of Englishmen and their allies who died in pointless conflicts. As a youth I remember seeing Cologne before it was rebuilt, Or the chilling sight, while driving towards Munich, of signposts to Dachau.

Two World Wars were spawned in Europe. The 1938-45 conflict was truly a contagion that rampaged across the face of the earth, ending at Nagasaki. I've seen what an atomic bomb can do with my own eyes. Destruction on an almost unimaginable scale.

The EU and it's precursors were created so that a group of bankrupt and devastated countries could pool their resources and create a better and brighter future. Which they did! It was designed to bind nations together so that conflict would be impossible. It worked too. We have enjoyed seventy years of peace in Western Europe.

By co-operating we make better use of our resources and reduce waste and duplication. The result is things like Airbus. Leading edge technology on a pan-European scale . Creating employment, lot's of employment.

Sure the politics of the EU are a bit of a mess and things need to be sorted. It took the USA more than a century ( and a bloody civil war) to get organised and co-ordinated.

Why run away when the going gets rocky? Why not stay and help get things better. Why not show a bit of leadership for a change. Let's leave our children a brighter and a safer place where they can live in peace and harmony. Let that be our legacy

Gus
Last edited by Gus Morris on Sat 14 May 2016 16:03, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by montgolfiere »

well said Gus. the Brexouters are led by a load of Failed or Loopy , has been, small minded wannabees, who choose to ignore the past 100+ years of European History.... VOTE STAY.
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Post by martyn94 »

montgolfiere wrote:well said Gus. the Brexouters are led by a load of Failed or Loopy , has been, small minded wannabees, who choose to ignore the past 100+ years of European History.... VOTE STAY.
I was going to give Gus a quiet thumbs up, but found that you had got in first and screwed things up. You do the "in" cause no favours with this sort of random abuse. I struggle to understand exactly what itches the Brexiters are trying to scratch, but I do still keep struggling. The itches are evidently real, even if I think they have been mis-diagnosed. Saying that they are all just bonkers, and failures with it, is no way to persuade them. And no more attractive to those of us who are still in two minds.

Getting back to Gus, I used to drive through the Somme battlefield en route between my place in Normandy and EU meetings in Brussels. There are a couple of horribly poignant sign posts on that road marking the line of the front a few weeks apart in 1916: a few hundred metres apart, and a few hundred thousand dead. It always made the tedious euro-nonsense I was trying to negotiate seem a bit more worthwhile (and in the end it turned out to be worthwhile on any basis).
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Post by montgolfiere »

nothing random and not abuse and all fairly minor 'banter'.
i have no way of being kinder to the brexouters. in general the self apponted leaders are failed or wanabees, ids and farage to name 2, and boris and gove are certainly not 'run of the mill' and they trade on being loopy........it is only my observation but, please feel free to disagree...it is nothing like the abuse they seem to give out... they act like spoiled brats and bullies as they really have nothing to say..they just abuse.... and like all bullies dont like it when they are 'pulled up'... vote stay, dont be a turkey...
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Post by montgolfiere »

the latest 'wisdom' (EU = Hitler) from Boris, is starting to make him seem as Loony and off the wall as Trump.....
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Post by martyn94 »

montgolfiere wrote:the latest 'wisdom' (EU = Hitler) from Boris, is starting to make him seem as Loony and off the wall as Trump.....
But so what? Boris has one vote, like the rest of us who haven't been too long away from the UK. He's evidently a careerist buffoon, which was obvious long before he opted for the out camp. I don't suppose that GrahamC takes his opinions from Boris: I no longer hope to persuade GrahamC, but I wouldn't insult him by suggesting that he is a Boris fanboy.

The comparison with Trump does, though, seem quite relevant. There are lots of people in the UK, and France, who feel that the "terms of trade" have turned against them in all sorts of ways over the last decades. And it is hard to say that they are wrong. The EU seems an obvious target for their genuine grievance. I think they are wrong, but I don't think it is helpful to slag them off: some of them are my good friends.
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Post by Nigel and Karen »

Great post Gus, have copied and pasted it to my Facebook page, hope you dont mind.
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Post by GrahamC »

Nigel and Karen wrote:Great post Gus, have copied and pasted it to my Facebook page, hope you dont mind.
First of all let's put and end to the nonsense claim that the EU is responsible for post war peace in Europe. It isn't. NATO is, helped in large measure by nuclear weapons. Sorry Gus, I don't blame you personally for this fallacy. It is an untruthful dogma that has been peddled by Brussels for many years.

Secondly Gus, I'm glad you mentioned the American civil war. One of the bloodiest civil wars of all time. I have been loath to point this out in case I was seen as being hysterical. The cause of this war was the increasing sense of injustice at the interference in the affairs of 33% of the states by the remainder. (The trigger was the issue of slavery but it wasnt the cause). It's shocking to hear you imply that Europe might have to go through the same process.

Thirdly Gus, your comparison of the EU as being analagous to the US is deeply flawed. The US is a democratic Federal system with a number of checks and balances built into the Constitution. The judiciary and the executive are kept separate and democratic scrutiny is guaranteed by the separate institutions of the Senate and Congress. If you continue to read on you'll see that the EU lacks all these essential features.

Now onto some plain hard facts.

If you vote to stay in this is what you're voting for:

Article 1 of the Treaty on European Union which reasserts the principle of 'ever closer union' without stating what that means in practice.

The European Council. comprises the Heads of State or Government of the Member States, together with its President and the President of the Commission. The High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy shall take part in its work. Decisions are taken by 'consensus' or by qualified majority voting.

The Council of Europe. The Council consists of a representative of each Member State at ministerial level, who may commit the government of the Member State in question and cast its vote. Most decisions are taken by qualified majority voting. 28 in all so our share of the vote is 3.6%. Some decision by the Council, require no scrutiny Or ratification by the European parliament.

The EU Commission. This unelected body has the monopoly on proposing all EU legislation (the 'right of initiative') which it does in secret ('private') meetings. It can also issue 'Regulations' which are automatically binding in all Member States. The Commission comprises 28 members, one from each country. Decisions are taken by qualified majority voting.

The process of choosing UK candidates for the EU Commission is done in secret. Past choices include Kinnock (twice rejected at the polls) and Ashton (a career social worker and career committee sitter).

COREPER. The committee of Permanent Representatives. Comprises unelected bureaucrats which represent the Member States. This is where all the horse-trading takes place of forthcoming regulations. Again all conducted in secret.

The European Parliament. Comprises 750 MEPs elected every 5 years. The Parliament cannot propose legislation. It can in theory delay or block legislation. In practice this rarely happens.

The Court of Auditors. Court members are 'appointed' by the Council. Is supposed to guarantee the proper use of taxpayers funds. It is unable to do this job because the EU fails to account for all its expenditure. There is no external auditing process.

The (unelected) Commission is the sole enforcer of all EU legislation. It is supported by:

The European Court of Justice. This is not an independent court of law. It is financed directly by the EU and has the final say on all EU matters. There is no right of appeal. The Court has ruled that EU regulations and EU legislation has primacy over national legislation. The ECJ has also ruled that it has primacy over United Nations Security Council resolutions.

72% of the UK regulations are imposed by the EU at a cost of approximately £10 billion per annum.

It is illegal under the Treaties to repatriate even the smallest powers to the UK without the consent of all Member States.

Westminster is not permitted to question possible instance of fraud in the EU.

Our principal means of accountable monitoring of the laws and regulations streaming out of Brussels are the Commons and Lords European Scrutiny Committees.

The government promised that no new EU legislation would be imposed while the Committees were in the process of scrutinising it. As of 2009 this promise had been broken 435 times.

TRADE

UK exports to the EU have fallen from 54.8% in 1999 to 44.6% in 2014. We run a trade deficit with the EU

Our level of exports to the rest of the world continues to increase. We run a trade surplus with the rest of the world.

The EU's share of global GDP has fallen from 30% in 1993 to 24% in 2014.
Last edited by GrahamC on Tue 17 May 2016 00:19, edited 25 times in total.
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Post by montgolfiere »

Not treally bothered by all the above, we live in a Global economy and i believe we will fare better in a 'big Block' than being just a poxy little island somewhere on the Continental shelf of europe who noone cares about. ...

probably selfishly i am more interested in the effects on Myself in my own situation. leaving the EU would be a disaster for me. Vote Stay.
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Post by GrahamC »

A good analysis from Roger Bootle in the Telegraph today. He concludes as follows:

First, if the benefits of the single market are so enormous, then why is it that over recent years countries all around the world have increased their exports into the single market at a faster rate than most single market members?

Second, if the single market is of such overwhelming importance, why are so many of its members in a terrible state? Why is the Greek economy not carried forward on a wave of prosperity unleashed by the absence of form-filling and checking at borders?

Third, if trade deals are so important, why does the UK do such a huge amount of trade with countries that it doesn’t currently have a trade deal with – including America?
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Post by GrahamC »

montgolfiere wrote:Not treally bothered by all the above.........probably selfishly i am more interested in the effects on Myself in my own situation. leaving the EU would be a disaster for me. Vote Stay.
Good grief.
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Post by montgolfiere »

The Brexouters are a Joke as typyfied by barmy Boris and the Loch ness Monster debate.. Doesn't he realsie that he is actually trying to screw the lives of up to 2 Million Expats around Europe and that is apart from his Big picture of a Little Islander mentality and destroying the UK economy.. Shame on them all. Vote Stay.
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eu referendum

Post by Florence »

There is much speculation about the effects of a Brexit on Britain and it's ex-pats. But I wonder whether any of our adoptive countries have made any contingency plans if we are no longer Europeans.
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Post by martyn94 »

GrahamC wrote:
Nigel and Karen wrote:Great post Gus, have copied and pasted it to my Facebook page, hope you dont mind.
First of all let's put and end to the nonsense claim that the EU is responsible for post war peace in Europe. It isn't. NATO is, helped in large measure by nuclear weapons. Sorry Gus, I don't blame you personally for this fallacy. It is an untruthful dogma that has been peddled by Brussels for many years.

Secondly Gus, I'm glad you mentioned the American civil war. One of the bloodiest civil wars of all time. I have been loath to point this out in case I was seen as being hysterical. The cause of this war was the increasing sense of injustice at the interference in the affairs of 33% of the states by the remainder. (The trigger was the issue of slavery but it wasnt the cause). It's shocking to hear you imply that Europe might have to go through the same process.

Thirdly Gus, your comparison of the EU as being analagous to the US is deeply flawed. The US is a democratic Federal system with a number of checks and balances built into the Constitution. The judiciary and the executive are kept separate and democratic scrutiny is guaranteed by the separate institutions of the Senate and Congress. If you continue to read on you'll see that the EU lacks all these essential features.

Now onto some plain hard facts.

If you vote to stay in this is what you're voting for:

Article 1 of the Treaty on European Union which reasserts the principle of 'ever closer union' without stating what that means in practice.

The European Council. comprises the Heads of State or Government of the Member States, together with its President and the President of the Commission. The High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy shall take part in its work. Decisions are taken by 'consensus' or by qualified majority voting.

The Council of Europe. The Council consists of a representative of each Member State at ministerial level, who may commit the government of the Member State in question and cast its vote. Most decisions are taken by qualified majority voting. 28 in all so our share of the vote is 3.6%. Some decision by the Council, require no scrutiny Or ratification by the European parliament.

The EU Commission. This unelected body has the monopoly on proposing all EU legislation (the 'right of initiative') which it does in secret ('private') meetings. It can also issue 'Regulations' which are automatically binding in all Member States. The Commission comprises 28 members, one from each country. Decisions are taken by qualified majority voting.

The process of choosing UK candidates for the EU Commission is done in secret. Past choices include Kinnock (twice rejected at the polls) and Ashton (a career social worker and career committee sitter).

COREPER. The committee of Permanent Representatives. Comprises unelected bureaucrats which represent the Member States. This is where all the horse-trading takes place of forthcoming regulations. Again all conducted in secret.

The European Parliament. Comprises 750 MEPs elected every 5 years. The Parliament cannot propose legislation. It can in theory delay or block legislation. In practice this rarely happens.

The Court of Auditors. Court members are 'appointed' by the Council. Is supposed to guarantee the proper use of taxpayers funds. It is unable to do this job because the EU fails to account for all its expenditure. There is no external auditing process.

The (unelected) Commission is the sole enforcer of all EU legislation. It is supported by:

The European Court of Justice. This is not an independent court of law. It is financed directly by the EU and has the final say on all EU matters. There is no right of appeal. The Court has ruled that EU regulations and EU legislation has primacy over national legislation. The ECJ has also ruled that it has primacy over United Nations Security Council resolutions.

72% of the UK regulations are imposed by the EU at a cost of approximately £10 billion per annum.

It is illegal under the Treaties to repatriate even the smallest powers to the UK without the consent of all Member States.

Westminster is not permitted to question possible instance of fraud in the EU.

Our principal means of accountable monitoring of the laws and regulations streaming out of Brussels are the Commons and Lords European Scrutiny Committees.

The government promised that no new EU legislation would be imposed while the Committees were in the process of scrutinising it. As of 2009 this promise had been broken 435 times.

TRADE

UK exports to the EU have fallen from 54.8% in 1999 to 44.6% in 2014. We run a trade deficit with the EU

Our level of exports to the rest of the world continues to increase. We run a trade surplus with the rest of the world.

The EU's share of global GDP has fallen from 30% in 1993 to 24% in 2014.
Thanks for the civics lesson. But I have been living under these institutional arrangements, give or take the odd tweak, for my whole adult life and I am no longer a spring chicken. They have not created a European superstate, or even tried to, nor even given us straight bananas, which might have been a more realistic project.

Your numbers seem to me to be entirely unsurprising. Developing economies have gained a larger share of world GDP recently, and a larger share of the EU's trade (both ways), from a low base, than the mature economies of the EU. It would be very odd, and very bad news, if that were not so. But that does not begin to show that we are better off out than in.

I don't know who has claimed that the EU is solely, or even mainly, responsible for keeping the peace in Europe (as if you could judge that like a figure-skating contest). I do think that it has made us more friendly and comfortable with each other, and I would vote for that even if all the rest seemed like a toss up, which I don't think is so, despite such authorities as the Daily Telegraph and Roger Bootle.
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Post by Gus Morris »

I had no idea my few comments would generate such a reaction.

I put forward a few simple precepts. The response from Graham C was an absolute deluge! Must have taken hours to put it together.

If the EU is undemocratic how about Westminster? The Upper House has eight hundred members none of whom are elected. Ninety two of them are hereditary peers whose only qualification is the accident of birth. They all have tenure for life. It's almost impossible to get rid of them.

There are twenty six C of E clergy too. So much for the separation of church and state which is the cornerstone of most functioning democracies!

After the Napoleonic wars the British establishment was concerned that the ordinary man in the street might imbibe revolutionary ideas. The Chartist movement in mid-century saw these fears realised and the leaders were transported to the Australian penal colonies. Yet five of the six central demands were eventually enacted into law! Some sections of British society have a history of resisting change on the basis that what was good yesterday will be fine for tomorrow. History shows that this is not always the case.


Gus
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Post by montgolfiere »

the appeal court ruling on the +15 year exclusion rule case brought by Harry Schindler, is due on Friday 10.00
if we win it could upset the applecart and be a great help to the cause.
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Post by martyn94 »

Gus Morris wrote:I had no idea my few comments would generate such a reaction.

I put forward a few simple precepts. The response from Graham C was an absolute deluge! Must have taken hours to put it together.

If the EU is undemocratic how about Westminster? The Upper House has eight hundred members none of whom are elected. Ninety two of them are hereditary peers whose only qualification is the accident of birth. They all have tenure for life. It's almost impossible to get rid of them.

There are twenty six C of E clergy too. So much for the separation of church and state which is the cornerstone of most functioning democracies!

After the Napoleonic wars the British establishment was concerned that the ordinary man in the street might imbibe revolutionary ideas. The Chartist movement in mid-century saw these fears realised and the leaders were transported to the Australian penal colonies. Yet five of the six central demands were eventually enacted into law! Some sections of British society have a history of resisting change on the basis that what was good yesterday will be fine for tomorrow. History shows that this is not always the case.


Gus
That's probably all good, but the interesting thing is that the Brexiters are absolutely intent on change. But without having any coherent idea of where they want to fetch up instead (the Norwegian model? Apparently not so good, even according to the Norwegians. The Albanian model? Apparently not so good, even according to the Albanians. The Canadian model might be fine, if we happened to live in Canada). Where they seem to want to land up is in a romanticised version of the 50s when the maps of the world were all pink. But I doubt that that's on offer. And it wasn't a huge success the first time around.

I don't imagine that GrahamC's stuff did take hours to put together. I guess that he can cut and paste as well as the next person. The surprising thing is the conviction that we will all faint from shock once he trots it out.
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Post by montgolfiere »

in fact i think they are even further back... the 1930's league of nations, The Empire and all that....springs to mind.
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Post by martyn94 »

montgolfiere wrote:in fact i think they are even further back... the 1930's league of nations, The Empire and all that....springs to mind.
What do you mean "even" further back? Some of us remember the 50s. And are still young enough not to have done National Service, praise be.
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Post by Gus Morris »

Brexiters are absolutely intent on change. But without having any coherent idea of where they want to fetch up.

True. But there is always the possibilty that some among them are stooges. There are those beyond our shores who see it in their interests to weaken, even destroy, the EU. Remember those highly intelligent products of our finest universities who were willing to betray their country to the Soviet Union because they swallowed all the propaganda. Or the British puppets who plunged the UK into the second Iraq war for very questionable reasons.

Your real opponents are not always the people shouting the odds.

Gus
Last edited by Gus Morris on Fri 20 May 2016 12:53, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Lanark Lass »

The appeal has been lost. News just in on BBC home page.
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Post by martyn94 »

Gus Morris wrote:Brexiters are absolutely intent on change. But without having any coherent idea of where they want to fetch up.

True. But there is always the possibilty that some among them are stooges. There are those beyond our shores who see it in their interests to weaken, even destroy, the EU. Remember those highly intelligent products of our finest universities who were willing to betray their country to the Soviet Union because they swallowed all the propoganda. Or the British puppets who plunged the UK into the second Iraq war for very questionable reasons.

Your real opponents are not always the people shouting the odds.

Gus
I have always thought the cock-up theory of history is more plausible than the conspiratorial version. The Soviet recruiters must have been extraordinarily astute, or else completely barmy, to have signed up this particular crew. It is easier, and usually more accurate, to assume that people just don't agree with you, and that you are insufficiency empathetic to work out exactly why.

The problem is not that Brexiters are not patriotic: it's that they are patriots on steroids.
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Post by martyn94 »

Lanark Lass wrote:The appeal has been lost. News just in on BBC home page.
Yes. A pity, though not surprising, that they can't get the judgment on their website once delivered. But a fairly predictable outcome.
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Post by montgolfiere »

It is going to the Supreme Court.
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Post by GrahamC »

Just logged in to see if this thread has got any better. No such luck. Not one single counter argument based on fact. Just the ususal responders who seem to confuse sneering condescension and personal opinion for rational argument. Or worse still those who dismiss the analysis of very highly respected economists and others just because they happen also to write columns in the Telegraph.

I've said my bit, presented my arguments which, Martyn, took a great deal of time to research and assemble because I actually care about the facts.

Its clear that both sides have deeply entrenched views and there is nothing further to be gained by trying to make this an argument based on the facts.

Ultimately I'm not even sure that the Brexit vote is relevant. There are many reasons to believe that the EU in its present form will blow itself to bits before long. The southern states will only tolerate German hegemony for so long before everything goes tits up. 50% youth unemployment just to support German banks and German industry is a con that is ultimately unsustainable.
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Post by martyn94 »

GrahamC wrote:Just logged in to see if this thread has got any better. No such luck. Not one single counter argument based on fact. Just the ususal responders who seem to confuse sneering condescension and personal opinion for rational argument. Or worse still those who dismiss the analysis of very highly respected economists and others just because they happen also to write columns in the Telegraph.

I've said my bit, presented my arguments which, Martyn, took a great deal of time to research and assemble because I actually care about the facts.

Its clear that both sides have deeply entrenched views and there is nothing further to be gained by trying to make this an argument based on the facts.

Ultimately I'm not even sure that the Brexit vote is relevant. There are many reasons to believe that the EU in its present form will blow itself to bits before long. The southern states will only tolerate German hegemony for so long before everything goes tits up. 50% youth unemployment just to support German banks and German industry is a con that yay is ultimately unsustainable.
You might think we know the "facts" about our current presence in the EU, but evidently we don't have any consensus about them. We cannot possibly know the "facts" about our future outside the EU, because we have not been there yet. As you'd expect, we will make this decision by licking our finger, and holding it in the breeze.

As for the rest, "highly-respected" commentators who write for the Telegraph tend to be highly respected by those who read the Telegraph. And similarly for those who write for the Guardian. For myself, I'll make my own mind up. I don't find authorities, on either side, any more authoritative than these elusive "facts". If the facts were there for inspection, we would never have had this expensive charade.

The possibility that it might destroy the Tory party is only a very small consolation.
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Post by Gus Morris »

GrahamC wrote

Just the usual responders who seem to confuse sneering condescension and personal opinion for rational argument.

I take exception to this statement. If having a vision of a stable, prosperous and peaceful Europe is not rational then please tell me what is.

What we are attempting in Europe is unique. A union of sovereign states acting together for the common good, Not an easy task and one for which there is no real precedent.. The fact that the road is paved with obstacles does not mean that the journey not worth attempting.

I want to move forward with my fellow Europeans towards a better future. There are those who would risk plunging us into a repeat of the chaos that was our past. Oddly enough your arguments have strengthened my resolve. The blood of several different European nations runs in my veins. My fellow Europeans are my kinsfolk. Not the enemy without.

Gus Morris
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Post by martyn94 »

martyn94 wrote:
Lanark Lass wrote:The appeal has been lost. News just in on BBC home page.
Yes. A pity, though not surprising, that they can't get the judgment on their website once delivered. But a fairly predictable outcome.
The judgment is now up, here

https://www.judiciary.gov.uk/wp-content ... dler-2.pdf

if you are masochistic enough to read it. The plaintiffs lost, in most respects, rather more completely than they did in the court below.

One of the incidental facts in the judgment is the dismal proportion of Brits resident elsewhere in the EU who actually bother to register for a UK vote. No doubt this will have ticked up a bit recently, but if you haven't, time is running out.
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Post by Lanark Lass »

Support for these people is notable by its absence from people with a vested interest in the Brexit vote e.g. government leaders?
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Post by montgolfiere »

not much point me registering to vote as i cant!!! a ridiculous argument from the Learned Judges... and is irrelevant to the case.
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