UK Referendum on continued British membership of the EU

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Smiley G
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Post by Smiley G » Fri 19 Feb 2016 07:26

For anyone who didn't read this article in the Connexion yesterday, I have attached a link below.

http://www.connexionfrance.com/Brexit-B ... ticle.html
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Post by Smiley G » Sun 17 Apr 2016 15:30

The latest Poll of Polls shows the following;
Remain 43%
Leave 42%
Undecided 15%
I wish the undecided lot make up their minds soon as there's not a "Don't Know" box on the voting slip.
Why don't these pollsters just ask "Remain" or "Stay" ? It would give us all a pretty good idea as to what we're going to wake up to on Friday, 24th June, which is only 9 weeks on Friday!
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Latest Poll of Polls: 53% Remain 47% Leave

Post by Smiley G » Thu 28 Apr 2016 10:55

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russell
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Post by russell » Mon 30 May 2016 18:00

My postal voting papers arrived today.

The quick guide states that, if posted in the UK, postage will be free yet the envelope is marked "ne pas affranchir" and "REPONSE PAYEE GRAND-BRETAGNE". So is the postage free here or are they trying to confuse us?

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Post by montgolfiere » Mon 30 May 2016 19:15

let's hope the 'MOOD' keeps moving in this manner..

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Gus Morris
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Post by Gus Morris » Wed 01 Jun 2016 07:35

There is something ironic about the fact that we've spent hours on here debating the UK referendum on Europe but nobody mentions the elephant in the room.

As I write France is, once again, showing signs of heading for hell in a handcart. It's as if the country where we have chosen to make our home is stuck in a time warp. I can remember arriving in Caen in the late 80s to be faced with protestors blocking roads and all the usual mayhem. In some ways nothing had changed. The country can't move on. It's like 70s Britain all over again.

While Britain remains in the EU there is a chance that, along with Germany, it can help facilitate change in France. Breaking up Europe may suit the Brexiters. But does this conceal a desire to return to the conflict that has dogged Europe for so many centuries? Economic warfare can be just as deadly has slogging it out on the battlefield.

Just a thought.

Gus

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Post by martyn94 » Wed 01 Jun 2016 10:08

Gus Morris wrote:
Just a thought.

Gus
If it is, it is a remarkably cryptic one.

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Post by GrahamC » Wed 01 Jun 2016 16:29

Yep, that must be it Gus. The Brexit agenda just has to be something nefarious like a desire for warfare. It couldn't possibly be some other genuine concern.

No matter that, in the latest polls, about half of all Brits have serious doubts about remaining. No matter that Cameron's attempt to negotiate even trivial reform came to nought.

Far better to conflate France's endemic problems with the Brexit question.

Keep taking the tablets - or better still try not to have too many 'thoughts'.

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Post by montgolfiere » Wed 01 Jun 2016 16:36

Got my cyanide pill ready for the 24th...just in case.

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russell
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Post by russell » Wed 01 Jun 2016 17:58

GrahamC wrote: No matter that, in the latest polls, about half of all Brits have serious doubts about remaining.
. . . and about half of all Brits have below average intelligence. :lol: :lol:

You can use false logic to support any argument.

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Post by montgolfiere » Wed 01 Jun 2016 19:52

Looking at todays BBC interviews..... Boris, Gove and the other has beens are basically planning a coup d'etat, if they prevail....

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Post by martyn94 » Wed 01 Jun 2016 22:26

Strictly, there are about half of Brits with below median intelligence. The intelligence of the person on the median is lower than the average for the whole population, which is pulled up by really bright people, like me and Russell (and GrahamC, and Gus, and montgolfiere and god knows who else).

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Post by Gus Morris » Thu 02 Jun 2016 07:08

I expressed myself badly in my last post. Must have been having an off day!

Phillipe Fernandez is currently engaged in economic warfare to try to topple the French Government. He does not care about the damage, he has simply found a pretext to persuade his followers to take action.

Bojo/Farage are the flip side of the same coin. They are prepared to risk economic chaos in the pursuit of personal glory. Like Fernandez they are selling a nightmare based on a dubious premise.

Neither of these factions have a real vision for the future. Just a lust for power at any price. Their credo is that it is better to be the captain of a sinking ship than a crewman on a vessel sailing towards a brighter tomorrow.

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Post by martyn94 » Thu 02 Jun 2016 10:36

What is it about the Internet which makes people see the world in these terms?

There is no reason to doubt that Phillippe Martinez (not Fernandez, but close) is a convinced marxist, doing what a good marxist should do - class struggle, in the face of an assault on the interests of his class, as he sees them. It is quite sufficient just to believe that he is wrong. Much the more interesting thing is the continuing reservoir of sympathy among French people at large, who mostly couldn't tell the difference between Karl and Groucho.

Similarly with Farage: he is obviously not without self-esteem, but is not necessarily insincere and self-serving to believe that the economic arguments are not as one-sided as I believe they are, nor to believe that there are non-economic arguments in his favour which justify some economic risk. The arguments about sovereignty seem to me to be debatable and overblown, but in principle it is a serious issue. Again, it is quite sufficient just to believe he is wrong. And rather more helpful if you still hope to persuade any waverers.

As for BoJo, though, you may be on to something....

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Gus Morris
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Post by Gus Morris » Thu 02 Jun 2016 18:22

Martinez not Fernandez. Should have checked before I pressed the button. Serves me right for relying on memory!

I've known a few dyed in the wool marxists in my time. Most thought that, in countries like Britain, they could never get enough votes to gain power. They believed that the way forward was to bring a country to it's knees by way of economic warfare. At which point they would step out from the shadows and grab control while all around was chaos.

Even post the collapse of the USSR the hard core believed that they could get it right next time and realise the dream of a worker's paradise. I suspect Martinez is of this persuasion which makes him and his merry band so dangerous. There is an added personal incentive as it would appear that the CGT is losing ground against the other unions and he is gambling on a show of strength to keep his head.

Gus

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Post by martyn94 » Sat 04 Jun 2016 11:30

Gus Morris wrote:Martinez not Fernandez. Should have checked before I pressed the button. Serves me right for relying on memory!

I've known a few dyed in the wool marxists in my time. Most thought that, in countries like Britain, they could never get enough votes to gain power. They believed that the way forward was to bring a country to it's knees by way of economic warfare. At which point they would step out from the shadows and grab control while all around was chaos.

Even post the collapse of the USSR the hard core believed that they could get it right next time and realise the dream of a worker's paradise. I suspect Martinez is of this persuasion which makes him and his merry band so dangerous. There is an added personal incentive as it would appear that the CGT is losing ground against the other unions and he is gambling on a show of strength to keep his head.

Gus
Heaven forfend that I should defend Martinez. But I don't think that he somehow bamboozled M Valls into the loi El Khomri just to get an excuse to drag France into chaos. You are surely right that the CGT are losing ground, but how exactly would you expect them to react to that, as a one-time pillar of the working-class movement?

God knows what his ultimate ambitions would be in an ideal world (for him): but his ostensible motives are intelligible enough, even if I don't share them. The reflex to infer bad faith, and hidden agendas, as soon as you disagree with people, seems to me depressing and unhelpful, on both sides of the Channel. And for that matter, both sides of the Atlantic.

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Post by lonesome paddy » Sat 04 Jun 2016 12:10

Talking to guy in England who used to do work for us, he said to me " if the UK stay or leave the EU ill still be sweeping the floor".

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Post by Smiley G » Mon 13 Jun 2016 09:38

The Pound is falling this morning against a backdrop of recent polls that seem to indicate a "Brexit" is a distinct possibility.
Labour are stepping up their Remain campaign with David Cameron taking somewhat of a back seat as the "Stay In" campaign feel that "Project Fear" is not working.
The attached is from a morning briefing received today..................
The big picture
Labour leads the charge today – albeit, as political editor Heather Stewart reports, “carefully choreographed with No 10” – with a speech by Gordon Brown the centrepiece of remain’s push to win over voters in the final 10 days of the campaign.

The Times reports that Jeremy Corbyn will head what it labels an “all-out blitz for the remain camp” this week amid fears that Labour voters are “haemorrhaging” to the leave side.

Expect David Cameron to take a back seat as Labour MPs politely – or not so politely – distance themselves from the government-fronted campaign in order to make the Labour case for In.

Expect, too, a shift in tone: out goes talk of the risks and horrors of a post-Brexit UK; in come unity and positivity.

Brown will say:

From now until 10pm on 23 June, we will not rest and I will not stop explaining why 9 million Labour voters have most to gain from remaining in the EU.
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Brexit

Post by Sus » Mon 13 Jun 2016 17:08

anybody wanting to get some (more...) info on the numbers being used by both sides, I have been enjoying listening to BBC 4 where they only ask experts, no party politician around, which is quite a relief. the piece on the 350mil saving going straight to the NHS was quite interesting.

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Post by Lanark Lass » Mon 13 Jun 2016 20:56

The BIG problem seems to be xenophobia. Listen to the people who are interviewed in the street......

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From poundsterlingforecast.com

Post by Smiley G » Wed 15 Jun 2016 10:48

Sterling under pressure against Euro and US Dollar owing to Brexit fears (Tom Holian)
June 15, 2016 Economic data, Euro, Predictions, Sterling weakness
As the Brexit gathers pace and with just 8 days to go before the UK referendum takes place there are huge fears for Sterling if the Leave vote ends up winning.

Sterling exchange rates are already falling and against the Euro compared to just 2 weeks ago we have a seen a drop in the value on GBPEUR rates by 6 cents or the difference of £3,600 on a currency transfer of €100,000.

The odds have also massively fallen as a month ago the bookmakers had a Remain vote priced in at 5-1 on!

The recent opinion polls have shown that the Leave campaign is currently winning. The most up to date poll was published by TNS which polled 2,497 people online.

The findings were as follows Remain at 40%, Leave at 47% and undecided at 13%. There is clearly an increased appetite for the UK leaving the European Union and this is causing a big panic sell of Sterling.

The next week as the time ticks on and gets closer and closer I think we could see big falls for Sterling and if you look at what has happened to UK equities on the stock market this week I expect to see similar problems for the Pound in the week ahead.

Indeed the FTSE has fallen by 2% during yesterday’s trading session as fear is really starting to kick in.

Therefore, if you need to exchange Pounds into Euros or US Dollars or indeed any other major currency then it may be worth looking at organising this prior to the referendum vote.

There are a number of important economic data releases due in the next few days including UK unemployment this morning, Eurozone inflation data tomorrow and the Bank of England interest rate decision but overall it will be the Brexit vote next week that the markets will be most concerned about.
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Post by Lanark Lass » Wed 15 Jun 2016 11:43

As I said - xenophobia rules in England. The "person in the street" who never leaves England (so doesn't think too much about the exchange rate) is only interested in "getting rid of these foreigners who are stealing our jobs" ( jobs which they don'tnecessarily want to do themselves -e.g. fruit picking in East Anglia)

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Post by martyn94 » Wed 15 Jun 2016 19:19

Lanark Lass wrote:As I said - xenophobia rules in England. The "person in the street" who never leaves England (so doesn't think too much about the exchange rate) is only interested in "getting rid of these foreigners who are stealing our jobs" ( jobs which they don'tnecessarily want to do themselves -e.g. fruit picking in East Anglia)
I don't think you have to be many rungs above a fruit-picker to feel that the labour market (and housing market, and health market, and school market) are stacked against you nowadays. How far that is objectively to do with immigration is another matter, though I guess it quite often is. People seek explanations for their plight, and find them in the most obvious places, without really being xenophobes. Just not as clever as you and I.

And besides, people do go abroad nowadays - like the middle-aged psychiatric nurse who decided to spend his holidays taking on the CRS.

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Post by Lanark Lass » Thu 16 Jun 2016 18:34

So.... our friends the Brexiters have allegedly stabbed a pro-Europe MP in the North of England. The assailant was shouting "Britain first" (see Connexion".

Campaigning on both sides now been halted.

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Post by Gus Morris » Thu 16 Jun 2016 18:36

This time next week it will all be almost over and we will be awaiting the results.

It seems to me that the EU is in desperate need of an overhaul. The refugee crisis is a case in point. What we need is a single co-ordinated policy. What we have is chaos. The man in the street has grave reservations about letting in huge numbers of refugees. Especially people who bring with them, and wish to retain, social practices at variance with those of the majority of EU citizens. Our so called leaders seem, to some extent, to be clinging to an out dated view of how things should be. The appeal of the bleeding hearts socialists and the multiculturalists is wearing thin.

I suspect that, whatever the outcome, the EU will have to change course. Britain is not the only member state where the efficacy of the EU is being questioned. The fact that the ECHR seems to be changing tack is encouraging.

I am out of touch with the UK so have no idea how ordinary people think. Though I am fully in favour of continued UK membership of the EU I'm starting to consider my options in case of a “NO” vote. Do I exercise my right to become a citizen of another EU state? See if I can acquire French citizenship? Or at least demand that my Carte de Sejour be reinstated?

Looks like the weekend after next might be quite interesting.

Gus

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Post by russell » Thu 16 Jun 2016 19:07

Perhaps dual nationality would be worth consideration?

Russell

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Post by martyn94 » Thu 16 Jun 2016 19:22

[quote="Gus ] Especially people who bring with them, and wish to retain, social practices at variance with those of the majority of EU citizens.

Gus[/quote]

Traditional EU practices like getting hammered and throwing beer bottles at the CRS? And that's even without rushing to judgment about the ghastly events of today.

However things go next week, I fear it will not be driven by concerns about "efficacy" but ones which are much more sad and irrational. I have tried to understand them, but they do not make me proud to be British. All the more ironic if I have to go back and live there as a result.

In any event, you're right that it will be an interesting time next week. In the meantime, I'm making a plasticine model of D Cameron, and stocking up on pins.

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Post by Lanark Lass » Thu 16 Jun 2016 20:15

R.I.P. Jo Cox.

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Post by martyn94 » Fri 17 Jun 2016 11:56

Lanark Lass wrote:R.I.P. Jo Cox.
Indeed. Even allowing for de mortuis nil nisi bonum, she does seem to have been admirable. Not that I would shoot anyone for conducting an MP surgery.

It would be facile to give the referendum any direct blame for this, but it seems to have opened a Pandora's box that it will be hard to shut, whoever wins. It always seemed frivolous and irresponsible: it risks turning out to be tragic.

But still, there's always the footie to take our mind off things.

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Post by Gus Morris » Thu 23 Jun 2016 19:04

Just a few hours to go and we'll know the outcome.

I'm sitting here on the verandah trying to stay cool and have amused myself by a quick tour of some of the other ex-pat sites. People with views based on moral, political and economic beliefs. Those who are motivated by narrow self interest. A sprinkling of remarks which do little credit to those that utter them.

For the last week or so I've switched off when the referendum was mentioned on the media. The whole debate seems to have been high on emotion and low on facts. Arguments fuellled by fear rather than figures.

I wonder if the 24th of June will be one of those historic events that are etched indelibly on my memory? VE Day, the Coronation, Suez, the Moon landing, voting to join the EEC in the villlage hall, watching the first space shuttle return to earth, the Falklands war, 9/11.

Who knows?


Gus

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